2021 was a year that will go down in infamy in regards to the real estate market. Tight inventory levels, historically low interest rates and increased buyer demand influenced by pandemic lifestyle shifts made for an eventful year! 2021 price appreciation is on top of the strong price growth we also saw in 2020. Seller equity is undeniable as homeowners are sitting on top of a wave of appreciation that has been mounting since 2012! Wherever you sit in this decade of price growth, if you are considering selling, you will enjoy phenomenal returns. As for buyers, they are securing homes with low debt service which has helped offset the affordability of housing prices.
We anticipate 2022 being another fruitful year for the real estate market, but expect price appreciation to temper as interest rates slowly creep up. Look to me to continue to help keep you updated as the year progresses. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions.
At Windermere, we have the benefit of being expertly guided by our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. Every year he shares his predictions for the US Economy and Housing Market. I have included a list of highlights below along with a link to a video where he spells it all out.
Matthew’s Forecast for the US Economy:
The US will still continue to feel the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy. He acknowledges that we are healing, but still experiencing drag due to supply chain delays and Covid-sensitive consumers. He expects this to improve as we head into spring and the second half of 2022.
He predicts a 4% increase in GDP in 2022.
Even though we are still experiencing supply chain delays and labor shortages he does not anticipate a recession.
He predicts more robust job growth in 2022 and returning to pre-Covid employment in the second half of 2022.
Inflation is still very much affected by supply chain issues and labor shortages, but he sees that settling out mid-2022.
Interest rates will help to counteract inflation and will start to increase in 2022, but not crest 4%.
Matthew’s Forecast for the US Housing Market:
There will be a modest reduction in home sales year-over-year, but realize this is coming off of a high volume of sales in 2021.
After a record-breaking 16% increase in median price in 2021, he predicts a 7% increase in median price year-over-year in 2022. This slow down in appreciation will be due to increased interest rates, affordability, and a slight increase in supply.
Housing starts will increase, but more importantly, construction completion will increase due to supply chain issues and labor shortages improving.
Interest rates will increase towards 4% as we travel through 2022, but will still be well below the 30 year average of 7.5%.
There will not be a housing bubble due to high demand for housing, job growth improving, and the overall recovery of the US economy.
He is not concerned about forbearance, but more so affordability for the aging millennial generation who would like to purchase their first home.
He sees the housing market moving towards more balance in 2022 after an incredible year of growth in 2021.
Look for Matthew’s local economy and housing market predictions from me in January. My office is also hosting a virtual Economic Forecast event with Matthew on January 19th. Stay tuned for more information.
Overall, this is a positive outlook weighted with some real challenges that we still face as we recover from the global pandemic. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you are curious about how the housing market relates to your goals or if you’d like to attend the virtual economic forecast event with Matthew in January.
Thank you to everyone who donated to our Thanksgiving food drive! Because of your generosity, we were able to give The Volunteers of America Food Banks a check for $3,075 and 2,169 pounds of food! That will provide a total of 3,498 meals for our community.
Food insecurity is one of the most prevalent social issues of our time. VOA food banks, food pantries, and distribution center all exist to tackle hunger in our community and also serve as touchpoints to connect our neighbors with other basic needs.
In tandem with The Windermere Foundation and local non-profit We Got This Seattle, my office is collecting donations that will be used to purchase meals from local restaurants. We will be personally delivering these meals over three weeks to a coordinated point person at Providence Hospital in Everett, Swedish Edmonds, and UW Medical Center-Northwest. Meals and treats will be distributed to frontline workers such as nurses, doctors, respiratory therapists, and cleaning staff.
All funds collected through:
12/6-13 will provide meals to Providence Everett
12/14-20 will provide meals to Swedish Edmonds
12/21-27 will provide meals to UW Medical Center – Northwest
As we start the fourth quarter of 2021, homeowners are sitting on top of a heap of appreciation. Annual median price growth has been unprecedented. Pandemic-driven moves, historically low interest rates, and limited inventory have all played into this phenomenon.
The third quarter saw price growth start to level out as many sellers have stair-stepped their pricing up based on growth in the first half of the year. That has reduced the average list-to-sale price ratios compared to the spring market; however, the average is still over list price. Days on market have also inched up, but continue to be brisk. Inventory has increased some as we find ourselves settling into fall, but demand still abounds with many buyers eager to secure a low interest rate.
You can always count on me to keep you well informed. I am a committed student of the market who continually researches the trends and understands the value of sharing this knowledge to empower strong decisions. Please reach out anytime, it is my pleasure to get your questions answered or help you embark on your next move.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the 2021 real estate market has been a head-turner! In the second half of 2020, once we started to emerge from the COVID lockdown, the real estate market started to bustle with activity. 2020 ended up being a robust real estate year driven by low interest rates and many COVID-influenced moves due to remote working and retirement. Who would have thought a global pandemic would have such a profound effect on the demand for real estate? Many people decided to retire and exit the state, many people entered our state and exited another, and a large portion of buyers who were no longer anchored by their commute followed their hearts to the suburbs and more rural locations.
When the calendar turned to 2021 the real estate market exploded! Inventory was depleted as 2020 did not provide the normal amount of new listings in tandem with a jump in demand. This combination created price escalations in 2021 that were beyond our wildest imagination. The price points for neighborhoods were re-established almost overnight with benchmark sales elevating the value proposition for the communities in which we live.
Seasonality has always had an effect on the market even in 2021. The first quarter of the year typically has the lowest amount of new listings as sellers make their way out of the short, dark days with soggy yards and projects on their to-do lists to prepare their properties for the spring market. The homes that sold in Q1 2021 saw above-normal gains over the list price. In fact, in Snohomish County, the average list-to-sale price ratio in March was 108%, and in King County 106%. As I mentioned earlier, almost overnight price appreciation established new home values for our communities.
Once the seasonal spring listings started to show themselves and buyers had additional selection, the price gains actually increased! The classic law of supply and demand relates the amount of supply against the amount of demand, and in turn provides a value. In the case of the 2021 spring market, the increase in supply actually was not enough to meet demand and put upward pressure on prices. Recorded sales from March to June saw the highest list-to-sale price ratios peaking at 110% on average in April in Snohomish County and at 108% in May in King County.
Since January the median price in Snohomish County has increased by 16% and in King County by 17%. Prices peaked in Snohomish County in June with the median price at $700,000 and in July in King County at $875,000. In August, both counties recorded prices 2% off the peak but were still sitting on top of a heap of price growth since the first of the year. Historically, markets will peak in the late spring, early summer as the ceiling of pricing starts to find itself. That appears to be where we are at. Although the figures this year have been intense and well above the norm, it is comforting to see typical seasonality still happening.
There is also this illusion that this type of market environment is easy. Yes, sales happen quickly and demand is high. I would be a fool to say that a sign in the yard and a feature on the internet couldn’t likely get a home sold. I must point out though that this market is nuanced and that obtaining the best results (top dollar and a smooth process) depends on how well all the steps are taken to prepare a property, price-position a property, and how carefully the negotiations and multiple offers are handled along the way by the broker. My office, Windermere North has continued to outperform the market in 2021 with shorter days on market and a higher list-to-sale price ratio than the market average. Check out our YTD comparison to the market averages to help understand how this elevated level of service makes a tangible difference for our clients.
As we head into fall and start to round out 2021, new homes that are coming to market are standing on the shoulders of the sales that took place earlier this year which created these increased home value levels. List-to-sale price ratios are starting to decrease as sellers are stair-stepping their pricing based on the freshly recorded home sales and the market is finding its peak for the year. Sellers that expect to stair-step and to escalate like homes did earlier in the year may find themselves disappointed and overpriced.
We are starting to see market times increase and expect a small surge in fall listings to help satisfy the buyer demand that remains. Low interest rates continue to provide buyers the flexibility to make moves with minimal debt service. As long as rates remain low, demand will continue. The good news is, not every home sale is a multiple-offer frenzy like we saw at the beginning of 2021. The new normal has established itself and buyers are becoming more savvy navigating this market. In my next newsletter, I will outline some expert buyer tools that have helped buyers succeed in this market.
The remainder of 2021 should complete a banner year in real estate. Sellers have made amazing returns and buyers are obtaining homes that better match their lifestyle goals with low debt service. COVID shook up how we value where we live. Remote work increased the value of our suburbs, retirees pushed prices in rural locations, and people having more time to reflect, shifted how they prioritize their homes’ features. Some folks even “got out” of Washington, but it wasn’t a mass exodus, as just as many are leaving other states for ours.
I see this last year and a half as a re-organization of our communities through housing, which comes with some positives and some negatives. Change can be uncomfortable, but change is certain. 2021 has been a year unlike any other! Seasonality, research, and relationships have been the stable markers that have helped me help my clients find success in this new environment and have helped me navigate some occasional choppy waters along the way. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you’d like to learn more about how the current market relates to your goals. If you know of anyone who needs real estate help, I would be honored to help take care of them as well.
All of us at Windermere Real Estate are proud to kick off another season as the “Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks.” Since 2016, we’ve partnered with the Seahawks to #TackleHomelessness by donating $100 for every Seahawks defensive tackle made in a home game. And for the third season in a row, the money raised will go to Mary’s Place, a non-profit organization dedicated to supporting homeless families in the greater Seattle area. Mary’s Place works to provide safe and inclusive shelter and services that support women, children, and families through their journey out of homelessness.
Mary’s Place’s mission and the work of the Windermere Foundation go hand-in hand. At the last home game, we were able to donate $6,300, which brought our #TackleHomelessness total to $166,600 adding to our donations over the past five seasons. We look forward to raising even more this year!
Nothing feels more like fall than pumpkin picking, hay rides and corn mazes. Get your latte in hand and head out to any one of these great, local farms to have some harvest fun and find that perfect jack-o-lantern to light up your porch.
Please be sure to verify and take note of each farm’s COVID-19 safety guidelines, as well as any potential weather-related (or COVID-related) closures or changes.
At Windermere, we are fortunate to have Matthew Gardner as our Chief Economist. In fact, we are one of the only real estate companies in the country to have such a well-respected expert sitting in this role. Not only is Matthew an asset to Windermere brokers and their clients, but he is a coveted resource within the industry. He is often called upon by major media outlets and industry think tanks for his insights.
There has been a lot of state-to-state moves over the last few years. Many of these moves have been prompted by retirement, second home purchases, and remote working due to COVID changes to the workforce. This is a great way to research other markets you may be interested in. Also, I am connected to the Windermere network of brokers and can easily find you a reputable broker who would be a stellar match for your real estate needs outside of my normal market area.
Further, I am also a part of a national and international network of real estate companies for referrals outside of the Windermere footprint. This is through Windermere’s affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Bottom line, I can help provide information and can help align you with a trusted real estate advisor anywhere in the world. Please reach out of I can help!
Huge thanks to everyone who donated to my office’s Summer Food Drive! Collectively we provided 2,608 meals for our neighbors in need! We presented a check for $3,400 and 888 pounds of food to the Volunteers of America Western Washington food banks last week, and that’s all because of you! Thank you!
The first day of school sneaks up so fast… summer is here and then gone in a flash! Whether your child is anxious or excited about the start of a more “normal” school year, here are some practical tips to help start things off on the right foot.
Start talking about it. New teacher, new classmates, new schedules can all create some anxieties with kids. Start talking about school a few weeks before the first day. Talk about practical things like what the new schedule will be like and what the school’s COVID policies are, but also make sure to address their feelings and concerns about the upcoming year.
Go back to school shopping early. Take advantage of your summer schedule to shop while the store isn’t as busy and the supplies haven’t been picked through. Don’t forget to buy extras for homework time or the winter re-stock that inevitably happens in January.
If you have the means to, also consider reaching out to your child’s teacher and ask if they have a Wish List that you can help with. Most teachers have very real material needs that go beyond their classroom supply lists, and now more than ever, our teachers need our kindness, our support and our advocacy.
Determine how your child will get to and from school and practice the route.
Ease back into the scheduled days. When you and your kids are used to lazy mornings and staying up late, shifting to the early morning school bus rush can be incredibly difficult. To ease the transition, start 7-10 days before school starts, and shift bedtimes and wake-up times gradually. Every day, start their bedtime routine 10-15 minutes earlier and wake them up 10-15 minutes earlier until they’re back on track. And don’t forget to readjust your bedtime schedules, too!
Re-set eating habits. When school starts, your student’s eating patterns need to maintain a high level of energy throughout the day. Implementing a routine for breakfast, lunch and snacks is just as important as their sleeping patterns. Begin this transition 7-10 days before school starts as well.
Sync your calendars. Add the school calendar to your personal/family calendar, so important dates like parent-teacher night aren’t missed.
Set rules for after school. After-school time and activities such as TV, video games, play time, and the completion of homework should be well-thought out in advance. Talk about the rules (and consequences) for these before school starts.
Prioritize mental health. Encourage your child to speak up if they are struggling, and remind them that their school counselors are there to help. Remember that often, being proactive with our mental health can be just as important as with our physical health. Setting up a few appointments with a counselor or therapist for the first weeks or months of school might be just the preventative help that your child needs. Or maybe just start looking into outside help options now, so that you are prepared if your child needs it later during the school year.
The 2021 real estate market continues to be hot! Tight inventory has been a result of intense buyer demand fueled by historically low interest rates and the lucrative tech industry in our area. Also, moves brought about by the COVID effect of remote work options and some people moving towards retirement have brought additional buyers to the marketplace.
New listings are actually up from last year, but buyer demand continues to absorb the selection. This has caused above-average year-over-year price appreciation in the double digits. June had the highest number of new listings year-to-date which provided buyers some relief. We hope to continue this trend as we head into the second half of the year.
If you would like to know more about how today’s real estate market applies to your financial and lifestyle goals, please reach out. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions.
The 2021 real estate market continues to be hot! Tight inventory has been a result of intense buyer demand fueled by historically low interest rates and the lucrative tech industry in our area. Also, moves brought about by the COVID effect of remote work options and some people moving towards retirement have brought additional buyers to the marketplace.
New listings are actually up from last year, but buyer demand continues to absorb the selection. This has caused above-average year-over-year price appreciation in the double digits. June had the highest number of new listings year-to-date which provided buyers some relief. We hope to continue this trend as we head into the second half of the year.
If you would like to know more about how today’s real estate market applies to your financial and lifestyle goals, please reach out. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions.
The 2021 real estate market continues to be hot! Tight inventory has been a result of intense buyer demand fueled by historically low interest rates and the lucrative tech industry in our area. Also, moves brought about by the COVID effect of remote work options and some people moving towards retirement have brought additional buyers to the marketplace.
New listings are actually up from last year, but buyer demand continues to absorb the selection. This has caused above-average year-over-year price appreciation in the double digits. June had the highest number of new listings year-to-date which provided buyers some relief. We hope to continue this trend as we head into the second half of the year.
If you would like to know more about how today’s real estate market applies to your financial and lifestyle goals, please reach out. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well informed and empower strong decisions.
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